William & Wall Issues Q4 2025 Macro Insight: ‘The New Normal’
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — October 2025 — William & Wall, a leading private equity M&A advisory firm based in Scottsdale, Arizona, has released its latest Policy Impact Report, The New Normal: How Fiscal Pressure and Fed Policy Are Redefining Interest Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity. This in-depth analysis provides middle-market business owners, investors, and entrepreneurs with a grounded understanding of how sustained government deficits, shifting monetary policy, and changing liquidity dynamics are reshaping valuations and deal activity.
After delivering its first rate cut since 2024, the Federal Reserve is now attempting to engineer a soft landing without reigniting inflation. Yet despite lower short-term rates, the 10-year Treasury yield has remained stubbornly elevated, signaling deep structural forces at work. With federal outlays stuck near 23% of GDP and annual deficits exceeding $1.7 trillion, heavy Treasury issuance continues to pressure long-term yields. This persistent borrowing competes with private capital for funding, raising the term premium and keeping financing costs high even as the Fed eases.
The report explores how the post-pandemic liquidity surge—a 44% expansion in M2 from 2019 to 2022—continues to echo through asset markets. Although system liquidity remains abundant on paper, much of it sits parked in reverse repos and short-term Treasuries, rather than circulating through credit creation and productive investment. The result is a market characterized by nominal abundance but functional scarcity: a monetary system that has fuel, but little acceleration.
For business owners, these trends carry tangible implications. Elevated borrowing costs, tighter credit spreads, and lingering inflation pressures all influence M&A valuations, buyer appetite, and capital structure decisions. Private equity sponsors and strategic acquirers alike are recalibrating models to reflect a higher cost of capital environment—what William & Wall refers to as “The New Normal.”
Whether you are planning a sale, evaluating a recapitalization, or considering private equity partnership, this report delivers clear insight into how fiscal and monetary forces interact to shape deal dynamics, valuations, and exit timing.
William & Wall continues to advise founder-led and private equity–backed companies across the Southwest and nationwide, providing trusted valuation services, sell-side advisory, and strategic transaction guidance in an increasingly complex policy and rate environment.
📈 Download the full report today to understand how fiscal pressure, liquidity, and Fed policy are reshaping the deal landscape — only from William & Wall.
💡 Take the first step toward a confidential conversation and contact William & Wall today for expert sell-side M&A advisory and investment banking guidance for middle-market business owners.
